财经周刊
投资观点 2011-08-15 14:20
源宗集团现有本益比非常诱人（7.3倍，相对最邻近同业必达食品的16至17倍）。黄氏发展维高达给予3.60令吉的目标价，是根据2012财政年全面稀释每股盈利本益比10倍计算。
全球可可供应商——源宗集团（GuanChg，5102，主板消费产品股），于1990年在柔佛巴西古当开始可可豆研磨业务，当时年产量达6千公吨。
该公司是于2005年4月上市大马交易所主板，在过去20年，源宗集团逐步发展成为本地最大的可可供应商（2010年产量达8万公吨），占去年总值32亿令吉的可可出口量之36%。
全球四大可可生产商，包括美国阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司（Archer-Daniels- Midland）、百乐嘉利宝公司（Barry Callebaut AG）、美国嘉吉公司（Cargill）（年产量皆达50至60万公吨）和必达食品公司（Petra Food）（37万公吨）。
这4家公司的产量总额，占全球可可总产量的50至60%。
源宗集团则位居全球10大之内。
出口逾60国
源宗集团可可产品是以"Favorich"品牌进行销售。
该公司通过超过70家跨国贸易公司/代理等全球分销网络以及直接向部分主要客户（如玛氏公司（MARS）、好时公司（Hershey）和乐天公司（Lotte））销售的方式，向超过60个国家出口约95%可可产品。
2010财政年中，源宗集团首5个市场为美国（35%）、新加坡（12%）、俄罗斯（9%）、荷兰（6%）和摩纳哥（5%）。
源宗集团主要产品为可可脂（占2010财政年营业额的54%）和可可糕或可可粉（43%），这些都是从可可豆中稀释出来的原料。
可可脂主要是用在优质巧克力的生产活动，而可可糕则是用来炼制可可粉。
可可粉过后将碱化成多项等级（用颜色来区分），并用在低等级巧克力以及饮品等食品的调味料的生产过程中。
根据黄氏发展维高达，销售成本占源宗集团营业额的90至93%，当中约90%为原料（即可可豆）。
剩余则为诸如电费和直接劳工成本等生产成本。
7.3倍诱人本益比
尽管欧洲和美国危机仍在演变，但是可可原料的需求依然保持不变。
这两个地方占源宗集团逾50%销售额。
据黄氏发展维高达，它现有140公吨产能，几乎全部占用，以应付直到2011年底的订单需求，所以源宗集团盈利能见度是良好。
源宗集团准备于2012财政年第三季，在印尼巴淡岛（Batam）额外设置另一条产能达6万公吨生产线，使其每年的研磨总产能增至20万公吨（大马8万公吨以及印尼12万公吨）。
根据黄氏发展维高达预测，全球购买/进口可可脂、可可糕以及可可粉的数量，每年将取得2至3%的增长。
欧洲国家，例如德国、法国、比利时、荷兰和英国，估计占可可脂进口数量的50%比例及可可糕/粉进口数量的30%比例。
领域门槛高
源宗集团料将从主要巧克力生产商（这些公司同时也进行内部可可豆研磨活动）不断成长的可可豆研磨外包趋势中受惠，因后者冀望更专注在销售活动及建立品牌。
目前对于意欲进军可可生产领域并且冀望迅速获利的新业者来说可谓难度重重。除了设厂的高投资额（每公吨生产线达100万美元或约300万令吉）外，这些新业者也需要具备经验老道的管理层，以及有效经营以及创造高产能的技术知识。
源宗也在本财年宣布每股派发3仙中期免税股息(除权日:8月25日)。
这家全球性可可生产商的现有本益比非常诱人（7.3倍，相对最邻近同业必达食品的16至17倍）。
黄氏发展维高达给予3.60令吉的目标价，是根据2012财政年全面稀释每股盈利本益比10倍计算。
慧眼
I like your analysis. It is really good.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to have a latest summary report from you for this counter.
Since Hershey is going to built new factory in JB, and also main customer to GCB. Thus, I need in deep understand before invest. Thanks in advance..
It expects higher revenue in the financial year ending Dec 31 2014 on the recovery in cocoa prices and the commissioning of a new industrial chocolate factory in Johor.
DeleteIts CEO sees margins coming back (price of cocoa) in the next one to two quarters from Jan 2014.
For the nine months ended Sept 30 2013, its net profit fell 87% to rm12.1 million from rm94 million while revenue dropped 2% to rm991.7 million from rm1 billion a year ago due to the higher net loss on foreign exchange and higher net fair value loss on commodity future contracts.
The performance was also compounded by the lower profit margin from write down of inventories and decreased selling price of cocoa powder and cocoa cake.
It is in the core business of processing cocoa, grinding cocoa beans into cocoa liquor, cocoa butter, cocoa cake and cocoa powder.
The group moved downstream into the manufacturing of industrial chocolate after setting up its new industrial factory, commissioned in Sept 2013.
It will focused more on its industrial chocolate segment in the next few years.
Guan Chong’s downstream move helps the group to capture more values, manage its inventories, strengthen its presence in the industry, and reach a move diversified clientele such as bakeries and confectioneries.
Further write down of prices is less likely as the market prices of the affected products are currently (Feb 2014) above their accounting price. Due to the accounting losses, Guan Chong’s FY2013 net profit is likely to be lower than in FY2012.
It is open to M&As with other chocolate players to expand its downstream business.
It is in net cash position of rm54.5 million as at Sept 30 2013.
The entry of Hershey to set up a plant in Johor and possibly another global player will provide an opportunity for Guan Chong to speed up its production. Hershey can purchase cocoa ingredients and finished products from the new industrial factory eventually.
The new factory is expected to contribute up to rm100 million to group revenue in 2014.
Its revenue grew from rm642.7 million in FY2009 to rm1.45 billion in FY2012, while net profit increased from rm14.3 million to rm119 million.
It is worth investing in Guan Chong given its growth prospects and consistent dividend payments as it has a 25% dividend policy.