Sunday, October 7, 2012

Astro与我


以前住在组屋时,就有个梦想,希望能够拥有一间公寓,那么就能够享用公寓内的设备,比如游泳池、健身室、球场等。

后来,我果真想尽办法买了一间公寓,那间公寓吸引我的地方除了价格、环境之外,还有就是它拥有两个游泳池。

在那住了大概5年,每天都经过游泳池,而我连下水一次都没有。

在还没有拥有Astro之前,我也是很羡慕那些家屋外装有碟型卫星天线的人,同时也很期待有一天自己也拥有一套。

后来,我也果真申请和安装了一套。

同样的事情发生,也就是我并没有什么去观赏。

我当初安装Astro,主要是想观赏英超。

不过,我发现也许年纪大了,要我三更半夜起身观赏球赛,有点力不从心。

再后来,岳母因为要帮忙照顾小孩而搬来跟我们住在一起时,我当初安装Astro的经济效益才发酵。

因为有鉴于空闲时间很多,岳母充分利用每一分每一秒的空档时间去好好观赏Astro的节目。

不久之后,女儿稍微年长了,我第一次被逼要打电话去Astro要求增加供幼儿观赏的新频道。

往后的日子,家里的Astro就由岳母和女儿两个人竞相观赏。

随后,发现女儿过度沉迷于观赏电视节目,于是又将幼儿频道给删除去。

至于Astro的收费,究竟是贵还是合理,见仁见智。

但是,我相信有很多像我这样的人,尤其是在大都市内。

很想要拥有一套Astro,但实际上却没有什么观赏。

Astro会有前景吗?

Astro是由我国第二大富豪丹斯里阿南达克里斯南掌控,在2010年私有化Astro,如今决定让该公司重新上市,将于10月19日正式在大马交易所挂牌。

当年以 RM8.5b 私有化。

如今以RM18.7m 重新上市,而且印度和印尼的市场已经被掏出来了。

看看老板是谁就不陌生了。

丹斯里阿南达克里斯也曾经将明讯下市,再重新上市时,已经把之前明讯的相当多资产乾坤大挪移了。

当明讯当初重新上市之际,投资者几乎只是买了一间只剩下业务的明讯。

这一次,Astro大马控股(简称Astro)重新上市马交所的首次公开献售(IPO),获投资者热烈反应和高需求,机构投资者超额认购逾30倍。

基础投资者同意认购的股票共4亿3000万股,相等于约8.3%股权。

另外,公开1亿394万6000股给大马公众认购的Astro也透过文告宣布,共收到公众的5万7259份申请,供认购7亿3593万3300股,相等于超额认购6.08倍。

Astro这次公开献售15亿1830万股普通股,每股面值10仙,相等于该公司缴足资本的29.2%。

在这15亿1830万股普通股当中,有4亿7430万股是新股,还有大股东献售10亿4400万股。

根据每股3令吉发售价,Astro将可筹集46亿令吉,扣除大股东入账的32亿令吉后,剩余的14亿令吉将充当该公司的营运资本,以及偿还银行贷款。

继土展创投(FGV,5222,主板种植股)与综合保健控股(IHH,5225,主板贸服股)陆续上市后,Astro是我国兼东南亚第三大的上市计划,也令大马今年的IPO活动引起全球投资者瞩目。

Astro是我国首家使用高清广播的电视台,并放眼2015年1月全面提供高清频道。

分析员相信,Astro的每用户平均收入(ARPU)可望取得增长,这是盈利潜在增长的重要指标。

截至2013财年第一季,Astro的ARPU为91令吉,过去三年分别增长了5%、4%和3%,主要受益于高清(HD)频道渗透率增长。

大马付费电视过去5年取得稳健增长,用户平均增长率达8.2%、平均用户收入增长11.7%。

分析员看好大马付费电视至2015年用户平均增长率可达11%。

这相等于62%的家庭渗透率,Astro料可取得89%的市占率。

Astro过去数年的业务增长率相当低,盈利赚幅也面对压缩。

为应对低营运赚幅,Astro正积极把现有用户转向使用高清解码器。

目前已有约130万用户使用高清解码器,仍有150万用户未转用。

此外,更多的网络电视(IPTV)业者进入市场,也意味大马电视领域将面对更激烈的竞争和挑战。

Target Price: 3.53 (TA), 3.09 (ECM) 

a. At rm3.00, It Is Fair .... 

b. Its Premium Is Justified .... 


a. At rm3.00 It Is Fair .... 

While industry observers said the new RM3 retail price for the comeback listing of Malaysia's largest pay-TV operator is "Fairer" compared to the indicative RM3.60 set for bumiputra investors, the investment community is still largely divided on the stock. 

Despite Astro's historical price-to-earnings ratio (PER) shrinking slightly to 24 times based on the retail price and net earnings of RM629.6mil for the financial year (FY) ended Jan 31, 2012 some remained unconvinced and would not be subscribing for the shares. 

The cornerstone investors have their own agenda. There could be other reasons. Maybe they think there is a possibility of someone coming in to buy them out later at a higher price or the funds who showed interest might be doing so for indexing purposes. This is especially true for funds who track the benchmark KL Composite Index. They are buying into Astro for that and not so much for the growth of the company. 


Astro's management has guided for lower earnings and margins for FY13 and FY14 as the company converts the current (Sept 2012) batch decoders to high-definition, the cost of which is borne by Astro. This earnings erosion is, however, expected to recover by FY15. 

Based on the listing price of rm3.00 per share, Astro is valued at rm15 billion. However some say its value could even higher at between rm15 billion and rm22 billion.

Astro has already achieved critical mass and its push into more value added products will boost its average revenue per user.

Astro currently (Sept 2012) dominates the local pay TV scene with over three million subscribers and is poised to continue adding subscribers at a healthy pace.

Post IPO, Astro's net debt to Ebitda ratio will be reduced to 2.2 times from 2.4 times and be maintained at 1.5 to 2 times in the long run.

Ananda, the country's second-richest man, took the satellite TV operator private in 2009 in a deal worth RM8.5bil. The company is being relisted at RM18.7bil without its Indian and Indonesian operations, or 125% higher than when it was delisted three years ago at RM4.30.

Astro has a longer-term growth story and shareholders will have to wait it out.

Margins were likely to see compression for the time being (Sept 2012 & Beyond) as Astro worked to switch some 1.5 million of its subscribers to high-definition. However, Astro's management was confident it could bundle both TV as well as broadband offerings once the conversions were complete.

Its Premium Is JUSTIFIED ....

For the financial years 2013-2014 (FY13-FY14) expect revenue to grow driven by growing average revenue per user (Arpu) and residential subscriber base, thanks to its premium packages and product bundling that includes its IPTV (Internet protocol TV) services. However, amid an accelerating depreciation to its Astro B.yond set up boxes, higher customer acquisition cost and a higher finance cost, expecting its earnings to contract by 21.8% in FY13, before recovering in FY14.

The group will also commit to pay out 75% of its earnings as dividends to shareholders from FY14 onwards.

On a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation basis, the issue price of RM3 translates to a PE of 32 times based on FY13 estimated earnings per share. However, on a longer-term basis the premium is justified due to Astro's: i) dominant position within the industry, ii) expected double digit bottom line growth, and iii) decent bottom line margin for the next five years at least.

Astro is primarily engaged in the creation, aggregation and distribution of content over multiple delivery platforms including TV, radio, publications and digital media in Malaysia . In terms of its business segment, the group is divided into four main segments: TV, radio, publication, and digital services. Of these segments, the TV and radio segments make up 94.3% and 4.4% of its total revenue (based on first quarter FY13 performance).


Astro is the largest pay TV operator in Malaysia and in South-East Asia by subscriber base with over 3.1 milliom residential pay TV subscribers to date. As at April 2012, the group had a market penetration rate of about 50% of Malaysian TV households which represents 99% market share of the Malaysian pay TV segment.

The group exclusively broadcasts some of its third-party international channels such as National Geographic Channel, Discovery Channel and AXN, to name a few. It also broadcasts a collection of international and regional sports content including, Barclays Premier League, UEFA Champions League, etc. Altogether the group broadcasts 156 channels, of which 68 are produced by Astro. Going forward, it expects its channel capacity to increase to 180 SD and 102 HD channels with the launch of Measat-3B. Its radio segment consist of 20 different stations, available via FM stations (nine stations only), DTH satellite TV, IPTV, mobile and Internet platforms.

Its listenership and radio advertising expenditure market share reached 52% and 53% as at April 2012. The group has the highest rated radio stations in the Malay, Chinese, Indian and English languages in terms of listenership.

The group's highly geared position of 6.6 times (pre-listing) is expected to lighten (after paring down RM500mil in debt and new issue of shares). Post-listing, Astro's gearing level would reduce to 1.8 times.

2 comments:

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...